Why are these 3 currency markets hitting the headlines and how could you profit?
PLUS: your weekly eletter is getting
a makeover! See details below…
Here we are, back in the saddle already!
I do hope you had a lovely Christmas and let me take this opportunity to send you my sincere best wishes for a happy and prosperous 2015.
Now, I don’t know about you but it always seems to take me a day or so to get properly back up to speed after a break from the markets.
And I believe it’s no bad thing to ease back in gently.
Trying to accelerate from a standing start back to 100 miles an hour can cause careless mistakes. It’s much better to have a good look at the current climate in the markets, get a feel for what’s been driving the prices, and give yourself chance to recalibrate your ‘trading-eye’ before making any hasty decisions.
And we have seen a bit of frantic activity in the currency markets in recent days, so in today’s eletter we’ll take a snapshot overview of the key driving forces that are in play as we move through the first full week of trading in 2015.
Important update! Your next eletter from me will look a bit different
I’ve also got an important update for you regarding future issues of your FxFxFx eletter… in fact, today’s will be the last issue you receive!
But don’t worry, I’m not going anywhere.
I’ll still be writing to you in exactly the same way, it’s just we’re changing the title of this eletter to synchronise with the new Trader’s Nest website.
Just so there’s no confusion let me clarify again – you’ll still receive your weekly eletter from me exactly as you’ve always done. It’s just it won’t be called FxFxFx any more.
The new eletter format will be branded with the Trader’s Nest logo at the top but the kind of things we’ll look at together will still be exactly the same.
So nothing changes as far as the content goes but please do keep an eye out for Trader’s Nest emails arriving instead of FxFxFx ones. And when you do open them up you’ll see the black and green Trader’s Nest masthead at the top.
It’ll look something like this:
You’ll receive your first of the new format eletters next Tuesday so please do keep an eye out for the email coming in (you might like to ‘whitelist’ the email once you receive it, or add it to your list of approved contacts, that way you’re always sure to receive future issues directly to your inbox each week).
So let’s jump over to those markets now.
Things have really been flying around in recent days, so let’s have a look at the kind of things you should you be following as you ease yourself back into the driving seat this week…
EURUSD down at lowest levels since 2006
EURUSD Monthly Chart
This is the week’s big story: as liquidity came back online after the Christmas break the Euro sold-off to test 2010 lows, a handful of pips lower and we’re back down at 2006 prices!
So what’s the big kerfuffle? Yes, US Dollar strength is in-play across the board but the main speculation here surrounds the European Central Bank and the situation in Greece (again!).
The Greeks face another debt crisis and their political parties have only three weeks to campaign before flash elections are due on January 25th.
Prime Minister Antonis Samaras says the election results will determine the fate of the country’s membership in the Eurozone, but a Greek exit could give overall Euro stability a real wobble. Peter Bofinger (independent economic advisor to German chancellor Angela Merkel) was quoted as saying “Even if the situation cannot be compared with the other euro members, a genie would be let out of the bottle that would be hard to control”.
So will it be another case of “too big to fail”? Even though Greece is basically down-and-out will the eurozone keep them in the fold, just for appearance sake? Watch this space – it could be a bumpy ride!
GBPUSD breaks down to 17-month lows
GBPUSD Daily Chart
To be fair, things don’t look too rosy with the British pound either. It took one hell of a slide on Friday.
Consumer lending data from the Bank of England showed the fastest rate of increase in nearly a decade. It suggests the recovery seen in the UK economy in recent years has been fuelled by consumer consumption rather than true economic growth.
Top-heavy and teetering household debt is dangerously exposed to even a small increase in interest rates, and with our own general election due in May it’ll be interesting to see how the statistics are massaged and presented and how this potential time-bomb gets managed during the election campaigns.
The slide in GBPUSD continued on Monday too with the pair finally finding some support at 1.5200. Overhead resistance comes in at 1.5500 to keep a potential short-term lid on things in the event this market does pop-up.
USDJPY: Gains set to continue?
USDJPY Daily chart
The other market worth watching is USDJPY. You’ll recall the explosive upside action we saw in November – remember the ‘Halloween Yen Massacre’?
Well, pressure has been building again through December. We saw bullish activity as the dip down to 115.590 was lifted straight back to 120.00. So is this pair ready for its next leg up now all the big players are back behind their screens?
It’s not as big a story as the EURUSD situation but 125.00 in USDJPY is the next psychological level to the upside, it could be a nice flowing ride up there too if previous activity is anything to go by.
3 Things to Watch Out For
So now you know the current driving forces at work in the markets, here are three things to watch out for this week as the markets get fully back to business:
- US Federal Reserve Minutes – traders will be scrutinising the Fed’s meeting minutes at 7pm on Wednesday and looking for underlying reasons they failed to remove reference to the ‘considerable period’ required for low levels of interest rates during the latest statement. Be mindful of kneejerk reactions in the markets if something juicy does come to light!
- US Job numbers – Nothing new here. This is one report that can send the markets reeling faster than any other. Be prepared to stand aside on Friday (13:30) and step back in once the dust has settled.
- Greek Rhetoric – The Greek political parties will be banging their drum in the run up to those elections I mentioned earlier. Be aware that any unexpected comments from Greek figureheads could easily send a jolt through the Forex markets. Traders will be tuned-in and following Greek events very closely. Their trades will be on a hair-trigger and volatility in the market could easily increase.
Be Prepared: Market Moving Data Coming This Week (London Time).
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Change
10:00 EUR Consumer Price Index
13:15 USD Non-Farm Employment Change
19:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
12:00 GBP Interest Rate Decision
09:30 GBP Manufacturing Production
13:30 USD Employment Situation
– No big reports
09:30 GBP Consumer Price Index
So don’t forget to take things easy this week as the markets settle back in. Keep your eye on the Greek situation if you’re active in EURUSD and remember that next week’s eletter from me will have the Trader’s Nest branding.
Have a great week first week back! And until next time…
PS: If you missed the launch of TradersNest.com in December, take a look at the details below….
Click here to download your FREE Forex trading strategy
It’s my absolute pleasure to invite you to visit your new and free trading resource, the Trader’s Nest website.
This is the not-so-secret project I’ve been working for months and mentioning in your weekly eletter.
And finally, it’s live online, right this second, ready for your first visit…
And to make this launch even better, for a limited time I’m also giving away a FREE Forex trading strategy!
It’s called Forex Ambush and this is your reward for being one of the first of what’ll soon become a strong community of home based traders.
To claim your copy, just click here and fill in your details.
Why Trader’s Nest is YOUR website
Look, when I say Trader’s Nest will be ‘your’ website I really do mean it.
I’m sure you know by now I’m pretty passionate about trading. In fact, I don’t think I’d be able to stop gorging myself on trading information even if I tried!
And I love writing to you about it too…
I take great pleasure in sharing my experiences and my ideas about the financial markets with you.
And I must stress, nothing’s going to change there, you’ll still be getting your weekly eletter regular as clockwork.
But one of my big goals has always been to help build a community of like-minded traders. Somewhere we can all get together and help each other out.
And the way I see it, each individual’s level of experience needn’t matter either. Far more important is your willingness to learn and develop as a trader, and maybe offer a helping hand to those one-step behind you, that I’m interested in…
A timely tip offered from one beginner to another is just as valuable as passing on an entire ‘advanced’ Forex strategy as far as I’m concerned!
Yes, this will all be about growing and making progress as a trader – whatever level you’re currently at.
So the way I picture it – at Trader’s Nest we’ll be like a true band of brothers (and sisters!). Any trader can raise a hand and get direct and constructive advice and support from both his fellow members and me.
And of course, there’ll be plenty of time to get to know each other better and have a bit of fun along the way too!
The Trader’s Nest forum
So the first feature of the site I wanted to mention to you is the forum.
That’s where you can post any questions you have, pass on any direct tips and techniques you have in mind, and of course, where you get to chat away to your trading colleagues, including me.
Registering is free and easy…
Step 1: Go to www.tradersnext.com and click ‘Members’ button in the top right hand corner.
You’ll then see a page that looks like this:
Step 2: Click on the ‘register’ link and you’ll go to this page:
Step 3: Fill in your details and then click on register. You can then click ‘Members’ (as in Step 1 above) and simply enter your name and password.
And please don’t worry about it turning into a den of negativity and name-calling like some well-known trading forums you might have visited in the past!
I’ll be making sure the Trader’s Nest community is a safe, uplifting environment. Somewhere you can share your thoughts and ideas knowing you’ll be getting positive yet carefully-considered feedback.
(Needless to say, internet ‘trolls’ and forum-flamers will not be welcome! In fact they will be banned!)
Develop Your Skills at The Trading Academy
I’ve put my heart, soul and 12 years of trading experience into creating the Trader’s Nest Trading Academy for you. It takes you from your very first reasons for starting to trade, right through to battle-testing your first live campaign.
I’ll lead you through a full foundation series – that’s where I’ll introduce you to the essential parts of your own smooth running ‘trading machine’.
We’ll then launch into a ten-part masterclass module on proven trading methods. Money management principles are next on the agenda, and we wrap-up with my insider-insights on a strong trader’s mindset.
The Academy trainings will accelerate your path from complete beginner to market-master in the most direct way.
And remember, this is all100% free and available for you to access right now.
(I must say, I’ve seen this level of material bundled into training courses and sold for four-figure sums. Go and get your hands on this now, for free, with your membership.)
Reviews: what works (and what to avoid!)
There’ll be plenty of reviews of all the handy trading resources I think you should know about on Trader’s Nest too…
You’ll find my pick of the best trading books, news feeds, brokerage and spread betting accounts, trading platforms and charting packages – all reviewed and assessed for suitability.
Only the best tools will make it through the Trader’s Nest filters (and I’ll be sure to mention anything I think you should avoid like the plague!)
There’ll be plenty of free resources flagged for your attention too. You know, there are lots of great free trading tools out there; the problem is finding the time to uncover them, isn’t it?
Well don’t worry. I’ll show you the things I think will be a good fit for the Trader’s Nest members.
And if there’s ever a tool you’re considering using, or if there’s a great resource you think we should all know about, just post a message in the forum and I’ll have it checked out for you.
And there’s much, much, more too!
Of course there’ll be plenty of articles, videos, extra training…
In fact, the beauty of the Trader’s Nest project is it’s a true community and you’ll have a say in what you think we should be focusing on. It’ll grow organically in the exact direction you want it to!
So I’m really proud to see the site go live today. And with members like you I just know we can make it a true treasure-trove of valuable trading information.
Click here now to claim your free Forex Ambush and have a good look around the site while you’re there. And remember to register as a member so you can join the forum.
Why not do it now, before you get busy with something else?
And I’d love to know if you think there’s anything I can do straight away that would be helpful to you, and your fellow Trader’s Nest members.
I look forward to meeting you on the forum soon!